Watches - Ride on it

Till few years back, gifting a watch was a very common idea. Most of the people will not step out of house without a wrist watch and then came the smart phones which changed this. Wearing a watch was no more considered necessity. In fact, watch started appearing a burden on the wrist. This changed a bit with smart watches and slowly people again started wearing it but this time not to see the time but to see the steps one has walked in the day, observe pulse rate, see the sleep pattern or to attend the short phone calls etc etc. Last year I read that growth pace of smart watches has reduced and people are again switching back to wearing standard regular watch

All above happened in last 20 years. Year 2025 saw a robust growth in watch segment by all the brands. Titan, Timex, Ethos, KDDL are some of the listed companies in India in this segment. While watches is a small (around 10% share) portion of Titan which gets maximum revenue from Jewelry but other 3 players drive max revenues from watches

Timex reported 29% growth in revenue in FY25 and having a robust growth in FY'26. Ethos is in luxury watch space and is growing at around 25% since past few years. KDDL is parent company of Ethos and is more into manufacturing rather than retailing like other 3 players. 

Watches are no more bought these days to see the time of the day but it more of lifestyle product now and thus all the watch companies are introducing more premium products which helps in better revenue growth and also helping them on the profits. This trend is expected to continue with disposable incomes growing across in India. A good space to watch for.

Look at last 5 Qtr Growth for Timex : 

And see this for Ethos : 

Mind it none of this is available at cheap valuation. Timex is trading at PE of 57 while Ethos is at 75 PE and Titan at PE of 90. But then they are consumer facing businesses having established brands so command a high valuation

Back after 10 Years

Coming back to blogging after around 10 years. Almost forgot about it. Lot has changed in last 10 years but basic principles of market and investing have remained the same. It all revolves around greed and fear

This is now my 15th year of focused investing. Never ever have I moved out of active investing in these years though the portfolio is totally changed

In one of the posts I had mentioned to avoid big drawdown years. 2018 was one such drawdown for me. Be it large, mid or small caps everything was through the roof in 2017 and this is exactly the kind of environments when most mistakes happen. I got into lot of infra, reality and some low quality (eg Lasa) stocks late 2017 and then came the moment of truth in 2018 when portfolio went down by 25% after being up by 58% in 2017 so net net most of 2017 gains got lost in 2018 and wasted 2 years. Since then, I have been more disciplined. Though 2022 was again down year but this time the drawdown was in single digit. Year 2025 has just ended as flat but rest all years in between have given between 20% to 30%

Planning to write more frequently now onwards

Follow or Buck the Trend....

Standard advice which everyone gets in life is not to follow others but create your own path.. Is the same applicable in equity investment as well ?

There is no need to attempt becoming 'Hero' in this market unless you are really a Hero..what does this mean ? Simple.. if you have the wisdom to interpret what could be the next trend in this market then definitely go for it which means you are able to see something which others have not been able to see it yet.  However if this art does not come easily to you then there is no shame in simply going with the flow as long as you are able to identify the direction of the flow.

Identifying the trend and simply following is easier than predicting what could be the next trend. Your chances of going wrong are less here and you can still make good returns following the general market direction. Let me give an example...We are in end 2016 now.. and since last couple of years trend is that private banks, NBFC (Housing Finance, Micro finance, Vehicle finance etc) are the flavor of the season and if you are invested in them then you would have made good 25% kind of returns over these several years. Currently IT, Pharma are out of trend. If you can spot when these will be the trend of the market again then you can make much better returns but generally an average investor gets too early in these situations and then gets frustrated before it becomes full fledged trend.. However by keeping simple checks on the market you can find out what is the current trend...It was not that difficult to find that in 2016 that specialty chemical stocks is the new flavor

So if you are successful contra investor then great..but otherwise also you can make good steady returns by just following the trend..

Speaking of myself..I am more of a follower of the trend. I try to find out what is in the trend and always on look to see if the trend direction is reversing or continuing. My aim is to generate returns on my investments and there is no shame in being a follower there.

Whether to buy Mutual Funds or Shares Directly ?

Broadly there are two ways you can invest in equity .. either thru Mutual Funds or Directly buying Equity Shares. Not only new investors but old ones also face this dilemma and many times keep switching between the two. See if below helps : 

What to buy in share market is important but more than that what matters is your psychology. How do you cope up with ups and downs and daily volatility is more important. Do you get panicky when market falls and get excited when TV channels beat the drums ? Do you get frustrated when share your friend bought gets doubled but yours one is not moving at all ? There are many aspects to human psychology.. Neither do I know all nor I can write all I know but point is that think about what kind of person you are 

If you honestly have control on your emotions..do not easily get panicky or euphoric then you can go through direct equity else better to go via mutual funds. Key is to honestly answer what kind of a person you are. Advantage with mutual funds is that NAV changes only at the end of the day and fluctuation is not as much as in direct shares whereas individual shares are going up and down every second during the trading day so it becomes difficult to control yourself if you have not tuned yourself to these ups and downs

Coming to which will give better returns - mutual fund or direct equity ? There is no straight answer. If you are a great stock picker (which every one thinks he is but mostly is not) then you can do better than mutual funds but else mutual fund is the better route. My experience is that investing directly in shares is time consuming process.. it will take years before you pick up the right stock picking skills and understand what to buy and what not.. and dont forget then you need skills to decide what and when to sell as well..so it is time consuming process. If you are ready to invest few years in learning then it is worth to directly invest in shares but if you are frequently asking friends or tracking various channels to check the new recommendations then better stop and go via Mutual Funds

Three Variables

There are only 3 variables that decide whether you make big money or not .. and these are captured in Big Money = P(1 + r)^t 


The three variables are P (Principal Amount), r (Annual Rate of Return) and t (Time in Years)

P is straight forward.. You have more  capital, you make more money on it assuming other things remain same. So if you are born to a rich family and inherit couple of  million dollar then you make decent money even if you put in safest bonds. But if you are not that lucky then you need to concentrate on the other two

r (Rate of Return) : This is where most of the people are focused upon and spend their energies.. They want to grow the money at highest rate in the share market. Many come to market to double, triple in a matter of weeks and months and most end up losing in the game

T (Time) is time .. Most difficult part. Everyone thinks they do not have it and want to get rich now. What is the use of getting rich once you are old..?

Principal is off course important. It matters if you start with 1 Thousand, 1 Lac or 1 Crore.. We all know that so let us leave that part. Problem is focusing too much on r.. this is the most difficult to achieve.. How much will be your annual return depends a lot on market state.. In Indian market context think of year 1999-2000, 2006-2007 or more recently 2014.. almost everyone who was invested in these years would have made good amount of money.  Mostly anything and everything went up like crazy.. however if you think of 2001, 2008 or 2015.. most actually lost money or did not make decent. So r (annual return) is never linear in stock market.. There will be few years where you can make 100% without doing any extra effort and there will be few years where you will actually lose despite selecting the best scripts..So what to do ? 

Do not push yourself too much after 'r' and keep 't' in mind - Recognize this fact that returns are not linear. Wait for good years but ensure you do not lose the capital in bad years. Consider this - if you make 50% CAGR continuously for four year but lose 50% in 5th year then your annual return at the end of 5th year is reduced to 20%

Principal Amount = 100000


If you are very smart then you can get out of the market before the start of bad period and get in  before the start of good period.. but I have not met any such person yet who has done this successfully over multiple cycles. For me, I stay invested in good companies and wait for good years. Year 2007 was very good for me ..2008 quite bad (but P was small for me those days), 2009 again good, 2010 to 2013 was so so, 2014 bumper year, 2015 average .. Other than 2008, i have remained positive in all other years. And that is what my strategy is.. do not compromise quality to get extra returns...rather stay invested in good companies and wait for another 2014.. when it comes it will pay for all previous years.

Share Market : Gambling or Skill ?

Recall this scene from Mahabharata .. Shakuni along with Duryodhan playing game of dice with Pandava .. was it just a gambling ? If yes, how come Shakuni was so confident of winning this ? Recall his facial expressions in all the episodes we have seen on TV.

My view is that, yes, this was just a gambling session for Pandava.. and that is why they kept playing the game despite losing, with hope that they will win in next chance. But for Shakuni this was not a gambling session. He was master of the game. It is said that Shakuni created his set of dice using the bones of his father's body. It is said that this was the reason why his dice always obeyed him – his father's soul resided in the dice. Whether this is true or not but it means he knew his dice and art of throwing the dice very very well. He knew the outcome. 

This is same with share market. If you come unprepared and buy or sell shares just like that then it is pure gambling with probabilities stacked against you. You may win once a while but, in most cases, you will give away the gains to market. But if you know the art of stock picking and have skills to sustain the game then your chances of making money in the market are very high..because 95% of the participants come in this unprepared.